Think or Blink?
Posted by: John Stapleton
Friday, June 26th, 2009
Malcolm Gladwell’s book, “Blink†has a chapter on making life changing decisions, like hiring a new marketing firm or deciding which college to go to. Can his research help you?
“Science,†the prestigious academic journal, reported on an experiment conducted by a Dutch psychologist, Ap Dijksterhuis on purchase satisfaction. The first scenario, let’s go buy a simple items like a clock radio; it turns out that when asked about these simple purchases later people were much more satisfied if they thought about it and didn’t just buy on a whim. Isn’t odd then that when buying something important or complex like an expensive sofa that they were happier if they trusted their gut, bought from their heart and disregarded analysis.
Gladwell reports, Sigmund Freud said, “When making a decision of minor importance, I have found it advantageous to consider all the pros and cons. In a vital matters, however, such as the choice of a mate or a profession, the decision should come from the unconscious, from somewhere within ourselves. In the important decisions of personal life, we should be governed, I think, by the deep inner needs of our nature.”
Two great baseball players, Tye Cobb and Tony Gwynn were different in their success by only 3 hits per 100, 37% vs. 34% success at homeruns. When deciding who is better in a situation like total home runs, analysis and some computer savvy sure helps. It is impossible, based on intuition, to know the difference between 37 and 34 home runs over a bunch of years. In situations like that, you need analysis.
But then take Michael Jordan as a 17 year old; statistically he was not the best jumper, nor was he the tallest or the biggest player, his stats were not the finest in the country. What set him apart was his attitude and his motivation. So when the scout recommended, “Draft him.†The team relied on the scout’s expertise and intuition, his gut feeling that Jordan would be a great player. Good thing they didn’t analyze that one too much.
So what I am suggesting? No matter how objective you try to be with complex choices, which marketing firm or which college is best for me, it comes down to fit. An Excel spreadsheet will not help but an “I got a good feeling†will. Purchasing agents and parents want statistics, but you can’t break down and score the really important factors? You need to take that leap and trust your instincts.
Are you a Blink it kind of person?
Hiring a new marketing firm is like choosing a college, important, complex and hard to analyze, so trust Dr. Freud and Mr. Gladwell, you know the answer, go for it, trust yourself.
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